Will the paper book really be dead in five years?

Quite Simply. NO. The Paperbook will not be dead. Sure it will see reductions year over year, but ultimately, carrying a 5-8lb laptop around is not as easy as throwing a paperback in your purse or backpack.
If you are talking strictly school textbooks, then I think that the decline will happen much more quickly. For example, let's say a school were to sell a textbook for $100, but offer a download for $50. How many people would buy the book? The challenge though is that nobody is as resourceful as high school to college students, so they will find a way to copy that file and transmit it for free.
The technology is coming, but sitting under a tree and having more than a 2 hour battery life to read a book still has alot of value in my...... book.

Dead is not the word. Rare is better. It will be like opera and ballet, for a rich elite. The developing world adopted cell phones long before we did. That was because they had no land lines. Likewise, they will adopt e-books, as they have no paper ones. Watch. And we will follow.

BTW: battery life on the XO (to pick one) is 22 hours reading a book in daylight. The cost of a textbook should and will be $1.00 or zero.

NN

The paper-bound book may die, but not any time soon. Ebooks are too difficult to read. It's WAY easier to flip through a book (textbook, resource book, etc) for the page you want, than it is to 'flip' through an ebook. Ebooks are simply not as powerful as they could be. Yes, they have bookmarks and chapter links, etc, but in large ebooks, finding a particular piece of information is often difficult. And, ebooks require an e-reader or laptop. Most people have laptops, but they are large, and their battery life is too short (read: thirty minutes after 2 years of use).
Until e-readers and the books they display become more versatile and more in people's price range, the traditional book will not die.

And, when electronic reading is more accessible, traditional books will become collector's items, not trash.

I can see it now second hand book stores get ready for expansion. so many books not enough time to read them.
So while I contemplate a Bebook purchase, mainly to save on my reading addiction, I just cannot envision getting rid of my enormous collection of paperbacks. They don't break if you accidentaly sit on them, and if the cat or dog bites them they'll probably live, If I drop them in a puddle I only need to dry it out for it to be readable, can the same be true of electronic books?
Someone in recent months said with digital and electronic media the product is constantly being updated, yet a book can last for centuries, so which device is truly effiecient.
As for the spread of books in third world countries, digital media will only survive as long as it take to be shot up by the local militia for spreading heresies. Thought, reason, and the ability to survive, war, starvation, and religious teaching will drive those willing to change and adapt out of their third world societies. Digital media is more likely to end up supporting the status quo.

Telling my grand kids two things:

The books I am about to give you, put away and hold them and pass them on to your children. They will be worth a fortune one day.

Do not have any aspirations to become Librarians.

I am sure books will become more expensive to produce and therefore buy, but will always be available for many of the reasons already outlined. Publishing will become more selective in what is produced and released in book form.

Personally, I stand by the perspective I gave my mother when she started hounding me to get an e-book and clear out my library. Nothing can replace the feel of a much loved paperback, the smell of fresh ink or old pages, or the sound of a page turning. And then there's the visual aspect: you see someone reading an e-book and the impression you get is that they're tech-savvy. You see someone with a book, and depending on the genre, language, title, author, etc, you get hundreds of different impressions. If the e-book takes over, which I doubt it will, people watching will certainly take a blow.

I have to agree with NN, paperbooks will become rare, not disappear. From my perspective they will take the same route as the FAX machine; they are still used, but with each year that passes you see less and less of them.

Don't get me wrong, like many of you, I love the feel and smell and the page turning (especially when the book just pulls you in) that paper books provide, however, as a frequent traveller, I must say, having an ebook reader has done several things for me: 1) it has lightened my carry on and checked baggage. Gone are the days of 5-10 precious pounds of luggage real estate taken up by books/text books...have you carried a text book in a backpack for the mile walk to your departure gate recently...just think sweat! 2) it has decreased my need for accessory items, such as my itybity book light...my ereader has one built in. Yeah! More space in my carry on bag! 3) it has allowed me to travel with as many books as I want. I am a fast reader. It is not uncommon for me to read 3-4 books in a week when on vacation. Now, all I do is download the books I THINK I would like to read, and like magic, I have the pick of the crop. since I don't have to worry about space in my luggage, I can pick and choose as I please. 4) it has left me with a few more pennies in my wallet. E-books are much cheaper than paper books. Enough said on that topic.

I guarantee the next time I move, I won't have to add more boxes of books to the mix (between me and my hubby, we had over 30 boxes of books on our last move).

I love the paperbooks that I have, and if there is a special edition of something I feel worthy to place in my library, you bet your bottom dollar I will purchase it. But my "mindless drivel" books...the ones that entertain me because I like the characters, the romantic affairs that make my heart go pitter patter, and the likes, I am good with having those in ebook format and pay a fraction of the price.

For those that claim the e-readers are too costly...if you read as much as I do, you will pay for that ereader in a very short period of time just from the savings.

Your article contains a very true prediction. Paper book will be totally forbidden in a few couple of years. As I am very much against of it and as only my concerned I am never going to quit this habit. I admit that technology is increasing day by day but we are not supposed to forbid the things by which we reach at this point.

We are in the world of new media and i believe its not the people who are opinion leader but the media. What we buy is what they decide. It is tangible. I mean if media creates a brand called ipad and people buy it than many other competitors use the same usp and jumps in the newly created market. They start selling their product by backing the promotional tools of SAVE TREES SAVE PAPERS. I wonder if by any means they mean it.

More and more technology is only going to create more and more aggressive minds.

Thanks
Prateek Panchal

Its great informative blog.I am sure books will become more expensive to produce and therefore buy, but will always be available for many of the reasons already outlined.I agree media created a brand called ipad and many other competitors use the same USP in the newly created market.Thanks for finding time to share your ideas.

It was on the news the other day that paper books are fading away. It really was very interesting and the fact that I just ran into this article also, weird.

I agree though with this article, when I go to bookstores I notice that most are hard covers. The paper backs are becoming extinct.

Well in my view personal paper book are still around and would still be in use even after five years. Particularly in developing countries paper books would be used for a long time to come.

The panic. Don't look down until the mind reading this article I suddenly gives.

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